🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still