Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of the Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves recorded a decrease of 10 scores from open play compared to at this stage last season.

A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign has been the reduction of goals scored in open play and how teams are finding goals increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing goal sources to the first 11 games last season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and penalties, giving us 13 less altogether.

Examining the bigger picture, the number of shots teams are taking have seen an incredible 370 fewer in open-play than this time previously.

Regardless of the big increase in set-play finishes, we've actually seen only two additional attempts created from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency sides are at devising strategies to net from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Show an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals notched in 110 games to date calculates at nearly 2.75 goals per game, if maintained for the whole season would be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 average).

But just 196 goals scored in open-play translates to 1.78 each match and is tracking to be the smallest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign additionally represents the only Premier League season to experience scoring more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79).

Which Sides Account for This Change?

In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the largest decrease, netting only four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolves, England's top division's fall in goals from open play is largely a London thing, with five of the city's seven teams netting at least five less scores from open-play than last season.

To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring numerous scores at the early stages of last season as opposed to them having difficulty to find the net in open-play this season.

Meanwhile Man City have seen the biggest increase, with almost every one of their 23 goals so far originating in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at clubs that came up with those that were relegated they replaced. Sunderland Sunderland have recorded three extra goals in open-play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches en route to the drop last season.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with each team replacing the reduction of five scores that they've produced in open play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.

Manchester United have netted two times more goals from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games the previous campaign ahead of Ruben Amorim took over, while the Black Cats once more have been more effective at netting than the club they replaced they replaced.

Man City don't seem to have got the memo about increasing scoring from set-pieces, because they've netted three fewer than the previous campaign, like the Reds, even if this could be because of the tactical shift they've attempted to adopt.

Overall Patterns

Six sides – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's leading trend-followers by recording fewer scores from open-play and more from set-pieces, while Man City stand as the only side to buck the trend to date by performing the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and commence netting increased totals in open play also.

Gary Rodriguez
Gary Rodriguez

Elara Vance is a digital strategist and content creator with over a decade of experience in trend analysis and market insights.